I fully recovered by 2015 and learned some very valuable lessons. The most important one is that Florida is a bellwether state. What happens in its real estate market often ripples across the country. No other market has risen as quickly—or dropped as sharply—as Florida’s.

Over the last few years, people have been saying:

• “Don’t you know everyone is moving to Florida?”
• “Don’t you know there aren’t enough houses?”
• “Florida real estate will never slow down!”

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But that’s exactly what people were saying in 2006, right before the last crash.

Fast forward to today, and the sentiment has changed. Wholesalers are struggling, buyers are backing out, and my investor friends are complaining that the market is tough.

If you’re a wholesaler, your cash buyer pool is shrinking. The only ones left are serious investors, and we’re only buying at steep discounts. Gone are the days when you could toss a deal on Facebook Marketplace and find a newbie willing to overpay.

Prices Are Already Sliding

In many Florida markets, prices are down 20% from their peak. But the average homeowner doesn’t see it yet. They point to their neighborhood and say, “Homes are still selling quickly, there’s not enough inventory.”

The reality? Foreclosures, bank-owned properties, and short sales are rising fast. One in ten FHA loans is now delinquent. Builders are drowning in unsold homes, offering rate buydowns to 4.99% and throwing $25,000 credits at buyers. Inventory has quietly quadrupled:

• Feb 2022: 15,000 listings
• Feb 2023: 30,000 listings
• Feb 2024: 45,000 listings
• Today: 57,000+ listings

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And yet people still say there’s “no inventory.”

The key is understanding that retail housing indexes don’t tell the full story. They don’t capture distressed sales, foreclosures, or bank-owned deals. To find the real opportunities, you need boots on the ground—driving neighborhoods, watching auctions, and spotting REOs before they hit the MLS.

How the Cycle Plays Out

Here’s the sequence we’re already seeing:

1. Prices dip → homeowners stop paying mortgages.
2. Economic stress → unemployment rises, businesses close, bills pile up.
3. Foreclosures surge → more bank-owned inventory floods the market.
4. Banks tighten lending → equity lines vanish, credit shrinks, values fall further.

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Unlike stocks, real estate cycles move slowly. But the signs are always there: rising inventory, more foreclosures, and longer days on market.

When Is the Bottom?

No one has a crystal ball, but I knew we were near the bottom in 2009 when:

• Inventory finally started shrinking.
• Prices stopped falling.
• Foreign investors swooped in to buy everything they could.

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That’s the signal I’m watching for again.

Preparing Now

We’re not there yet, but opportunities are already appearing.

The key is preparation. You don’t want to wait until the headlines say “Housing Crash” to get educated. By then, the best opportunities will already be gone.

Now is the time to sharpen your focus. Learn the strategies that matter in this type of market:

Foreclosures
Pre-Foreclosures
Short Sales
Bank-Owned Homes
Motivated Sellers

Abraham Lincoln said it best: “Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

Sharpen your axe now, because the best deals are coming—and when they do, you’ll want to be ready to strike.